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7月全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比涨幅略有扩大 上涨2.1%

发布时间:2018-11-05 16:19
国家统计局9日发布了最新的物价数据。7月全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比涨幅略有扩大,上涨2.1%,环比由降转升,上涨0.3%。专家表示,CPI回升主要是受非食品价格上涨影响,其中暑期出行导致旅游等相关项目涨幅居前。未来油价和猪肉价格还有可能上涨,通胀水平有望保持温和上涨。
 
The National Bureau of statistics released the latest price data on 9. In July, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose slightly from a year earlier, rising by 2.1%, from a decline to an increase of 0.3%. Experts said that the CPI rebound was mainly affected by the rise in non-food prices, with summer travel leading to tourism and other related projects. The price of oil and pork is likely to rise in the future, and inflation is expected to maintain a moderate rise.
 
 
 
7月CPI超预期上涨,同比创下近四个月新高,环比结束“四连跌”。国家统计局城市司高级统计师绳国庆表示,从环比看,非食品价格上涨0.3%,涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点,影响CPI上涨约0.28个百分点。暑假出行高峰,需求增加,飞机票、旅游和宾馆住宿价格分别上涨14.5%、7.9%和2.2%,三项合计影响CPI上涨约0.19个百分点,是CPI上涨的主要原因。从同比看,非食品价格上涨2.4%,影响CPI上涨约1.96个百分点。其中,汽油和柴油价格分别上涨22.7%和25.1%,合计影响CPI上涨约0.42个百分点。
 
In July, CPI rose above expectations, hitting a new high of nearly four months compared with the previous year. According to Sheng Guoqing, a senior statistician in the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, non-food prices rose by 0.3% annually, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, affecting CPI by about 0.28 percentage points. Summer vacation travel peak, increased demand, air ticket, travel and hotel accommodation prices rose by 14.5%, 7.9% and 2.2%, respectively. The three factors combined affect the CPI rise by about 0.19 percentage points, which is the main reason for the CPI rise. From the year-on-year perspective, non food prices rose by 2.4%, affecting CPI's rise of about 1.96 percentage points. Among them, gasoline and diesel prices rose by 22.7% and 25.1%, respectively, affecting a total CPI increase of about 0.42 percentage points.
 
 
 
 
 
中信证券固定收益首席研究员明明表示,暑期旅游旺季刺激旅游及相关服务价格大幅上行,但随着假期临近尾声,旅游需求逐步消退,8月旅游及相关服务价格将有所回落。油价方面,考虑到未来地缘政治风险下原油减产,美国新增矿井不足,以及国内财政扩张带动资本开支增加对原油的需求,油价仍然存在一定的上行空间,是未来一段时间推升通胀预期的重要因素。供需格局调整下猪肉价格也存在上涨空间,通胀可能面临上行预期。
 
CITIC Securities Fixed Income Chief Researcher Mingming said that the peak summer tourism season stimulated tourism and related services prices to rise substantially, but with the end of the holiday, tourism demand gradually receded, and tourism and related services prices will fall in August. In terms of oil prices, considering the reduction of crude oil production under future geopolitical risks, the shortage of new mines in the United States, and the increased demand for crude oil driven by domestic fiscal expansion, there is still room for oil prices to rise, which is an important factor in boosting inflation expectations in the future. Under the adjustment of supply and demand pattern, there is also room for rising pork prices. Inflation may face upward expectations.
 
 
 
对于物价未来的走势,中国民生银行首席研究员温彬认为,通胀因素要关注贸易摩擦带来的进口商品价格提升以及下半年基建发力对资源类产品需求增加导致的价格上涨影响。总体来看,我国通胀水平温和可控,货币政策仍有偏宽松空间。预计短期内,市场利率将保持平稳。
 
As for the future trend of prices, Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank of China, believes that inflation factors should pay attention to the rising prices of imported commodities caused by trade frictions and the impact of infrastructure development on the rising demand for resources products in the second half of the year. On the whole, China's inflation level is moderate and controllable, and monetary policy is still slant. Market interest rates are expected to remain stable in the short term.
 
 
 
招商证券宏观分析师张一平则认为,7月CPI同比出现抬升预计难以持续,通胀因素仍不是年内货币政策的主要矛盾。目前来看,年内通胀的不确定性可能主要来自于贸易摩擦对于大豆等相关产品的进口,仍需持续关注。
 
Zhang Yiping, Macro Analyst of China Merchants Securities, believes that the rise in CPI in July is expected to be unsustainable, and inflation is still not the main contradiction of monetary policy in the year. At present, the uncertainty of inflation during the year may mainly come from trade frictions on imports of soybeans and other related products, which still needs to be continued attention.

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